British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher was the very first major world leader to call for concerted action to deal with climatic change and the resultant global warming. “No generation has a freehold on this Earth”, she said, “all we have is really a life tenancy having a full repairing lease”. In reality, obviously, there has been no landlord’s inspection for a long time and also the fabric of the Earth is being continually damaged by our economic activities.
The case of worldwide warming is easily the most insidious from the running repairs that people are neglecting to make: in fact the longer we ignore it, the more difficult and expensive it will be to put right. Just how much it would cost now versus in the future and in which the money should originate from is really a hotly debated political issue however in this article I’d like to show readers that it is the political dimensions, not the technical dimensions which are most pressing because we can slow global warming down or even stop it.
What makes climatic change such is difficult political problem is the all pervasiveness from it: nothing you’ve seen prior within our history has got the entire life-style need of the human species must be overhauled. We have built our industrial civilisation on the basis of energy from fossil fuels, giving us temporary benefit but at the cost of long term danger. Politically, we want not only address the roll-out of new powers but also the approach we take to take into account the economical system that fools us into thinking that non-renewable fuels are “cheap”. However, humanity only has two paths forward at this point. Either we voluntarily change to a low-carbon, low-oil, low-net water use, low-net-material use economy over the next 2 decades or even the collapse in our natural systems forces us to do this around 2030: not even a working life away. The people who will begin to suffer most from our inaction are already on the planet.
As you may imagine, with such a massive problem there isn’t any single “solution”, instead there’s a whole couple of what Princeton University calls “stabilization wedges”: strategies and/or technologies that more than a time of several decades each ultimately reduce projected global carbon emissions by one billion metric tons per year. Human activity currently causes around 8 billion tons per year to be emitted and projected economic growth will see that rise to 16 billion tons by 2050. Princeton have identified “wedges” of action which will each reduce emissions by 1 billion tons per year.
Remember, though the “one” solution that exists may be the deployment of all things we are able to; to bring that about we want the political will to do it. Politicians do react to what electorates want, to help you participate the answer by letting them know to do something, now.
The challenge to the world would be to peak carbon emissions by around 2020, then drop at least 60% by 2050 after which reach near zero net carbon emissions by 2100. As we implement the wedges in four decades, we should be able to slow the rate increase in CO2 concentrations, stabilise and, even, begin to reduce them
The fundamental technique is to replace virtually all coal use as quickly as possible, electrify transportation whenever possible and end deforestation plus replace much of what has been lost.
Here are the detailed actions, each billion a lot of reduced emissions is referred to as a “wedge”:
1 wedge from vehicle efficiency – all cars 60 mpg, with no rise in miles travelled per vehicle: this is already common among European vehicles
1 wedge from wind power – this could need one million large wind generators to be installed, an incredible growth chance of the economy
1 wedge from electrification of vehicles transport, although, obviously this also must come from renewable resources. Ultimately all cars will be plug-in hybrids or pure electric vehicles.
3 wedges from concentrated solar thermal (aka solar base load) power plants. This technology can generate as much electricity as “conventional” gas or coal powered stations and, through the use of heat storage, can operate Twenty-four hours a day.
3 wedges from improved efficiency of one’s use. Considering the fact that coal-fired electricity generation is only around 30% efficient which buildings generally vent a lot of the expensive heat (or higher heat and need expensive cooling) this ought to be one of the quickest and easiest solution to achieve.
1 wedge from solar photovoltaic, mostly small scale, domestic generation of electricity. Britain introduced a “Feed in Tarrif” this year which encouraged around 20,000 installations in that year, several that’s expected to grow, quickly.
1 wedge from nuclear power: not strictly a renewable source but it’s a minimal carbon technology.
2 wedges from forestry through an end to all tropical and old growth boreal deforestation coupled with a massive replanting exercise. The total forest lost in the last century covers an area equal to about this of continental U.S. Replacing that loss could be sped along by adoption of new thinking on, for instance how we farm the land. There is a form of agriculture called Agroforestry, which integrates trees with farming, for example lines of trees with crops growing together (alley cropping), hedgerows, living fences, windbreaks, pasture trees, woodlots, and several other farming patterns. Agroforestry increases biodiversity, supports wildlife, provides firewood, fertilizer, forage, food and much more, raises the soil, raises the water, benefits the farmers, benefits everyone.
1 wedge from conservation efforts and changed behaviour and dietary changes (much more vegetables, a smaller amount meat).
1 wedge through artificial increases with what is called the “albedo” of the planet (the ability to reflect heat away from the surface). This is achieved through white roofs and pavement in the style traditionally used in Greece, for instance
The suggestions above technologies are available now and the following additional wedges require some major advances in applied research but they are considered plausible within the next 20 years.
Geothermal and ocean-based renewables i.e. tidal, wave, and/or ocean thermal could contribute at least 1 wedge.
Biomass co-firing with coal plus carbon capture and storage is a huge hope, even though carbon capture technologies have to date been very difficult to develop and also the risk of the stored co2 escaping worries many environmentalists.
Cellulosic bio-fuels for long-distance transport and aviation remains controversial because it would occupy around 8% from the world’s cropland, which has obvious implications for feeding the growing world population.
Applying improved agricultural practices to any or all existing croplands and/or “charcoal created by pyrolysis of biomass” are controversial today, but tend to offer great benefits.
The size from the change necessary is staggering but I believe that humans are at their finest when given enormous challenge. If we delay a full decade until 2020 before getting serious, then we will need to deploy more wedges, faster. And, by then, adaptation will just be as politically tough just as real mitigation, but considerably more costly and not as good at reducing future misery.