Should you take a look at some statistics in the U.S. Census organization, the CIA Fact Book, and many other credible sources and put them together in a “what-if” analysis concerning the future economic power of Russia, China, India, and the United States, you can develop the following statistical measures:
- The current population of the United States is about 310 million people, the 2050 estimated population is likely to grow about 42% to 439 million, the current GDP of the us is all about $14.43 trillion dollars which yields a present GDP to current population ratio around $46,561 per person ($14.43 trillion divided by 310 million people).
- The current population of Russia is all about 143 million people, the 2050 estimated human population is likely to shrink 23% to 109 million people, the present GDP of Russia is about $1.24 trillion, yielding a GDP to population ratio around $8681.
- The present population of China is about 1.34 billion people, the 2050 estimated human population is expected to grow about 9% to 1.46 billion people, the present GDP of China is all about $4.8 billion, yielding a GDP to population ratio of about $3,595.
- The current population of India is all about 1.2 billion people, the 2050 estimated population is likely to grow about 53% to 1.81 billion people, the current GDP of India is all about $1.1 trillion, yielding a GDP to population ratio of about $925.
Not unexpected, america is the richest country on the planet as measured by gross GDP and GDP per citizen. However, the growth of the us economy is pretty steady and conservative vs. countries like China and India. Let’s play some games with one of these base numbers:
- Let’s assume, and there’s no reason to think otherwise, that China continues to grow quickly over the next 40 years. When the Chinese are able to get their GDP to population ratio almost half of the items the current U.S. ratio is, then your total size of the Chinese economy as measured by GDP (in the current dollars) would be over $34 trillion, almost two and half times how big the U.S. economy.
- Let’s do the same thing with India but assume that the ratio is so low that they can only get their ratio up to a quarter of what the present U.S. ratio is, then the total size of the Indian economy as measured by GDP (in the current dollars) could be over $21 trillion, 50% larger than the size of the U.S. economy.
- We will not do the same analysis for Russia since given how quickly its population is made of shrinking, its economic impact on the planet economy will be less and less with time.
Thus, the upside for both the Chinese and Indian finance industry is high based on the amount of citizens in each country and their governments’ need to aggressively grow their economies. Before we all know it, both economies might be approaching and/or surpassing the dimensions and power of the us economy.
If you do not believe these calculations, think about a recent article from the Financial Times that was summarized in the July 30, 2010 publication of the Week magazine. According to the Financial Times, China is now the biggest consumer of one’s, passing the United States last year reported by the International Energy Agency. As late because the year 2000, the United States used twice the power that China used. Now, China is applying at least 4% a lot more than us.
Another source. Inside a recent feature section in Fortune magazine, Goldman Sach’s was quoted as estimating that by the year 2050, the size of the Chinese economy is going to be about $70 billion as the size of the U.S. economy is going to be only about $40 billion and merely barely in front of the Indian economy. By 2050, Brazil, Russia, India, and China will exceed the greenhouse emissions of the rest of the developed world.
All of these numbers indicate exactly the same conclusion: namely that China and India will end up much, much stronger within the coming years and much more competitive, both for raw materials, finished products, and markets to market many. America needs to take some long-term strategic actions in light of the approaching tsunami of stronger economic rivals:
- We cannot aspire to compete later on economic landscape if we do not try to better educate our children for this new reality. The United States consistently ranks in the bottom half of worldwide student testing and education. This can not make for a powerful economy if our workforce is outsmarted by other countries which possess the benefit of numbers on the side.
- We can’t hamstring our very own economy with Obama’s cap and trade policy while the rest of the world, such as the larger and larger energy users of India and china do not accept stringent and trackable carbon emissions programs. If the United States goes it alone in this area, our economy are affected at the hands of these economies that don’t, leading to lost jobs, lost industries, and lost economic strength since any carbon savings we incur is going to be overwhelmed by these new economic powers.
- We cannot still police the planet, draining our economy through our military budget. Easier to focus on getting our very own economic house so as rather than deploying troops all over the world to protect against enemies that do not exist anymore, enemies that can’t do any direct harm to us, or enemies which are better handled by other countries or the Un. We need to buy our 54,000 approximately troops from Germany since the Iron Curtain no longer exists, we have to bring home the 90,000 or so troops from Iraq as Obama the campaigner promised to do, we have to bring home our 50,000 approximately troops from Japan since Japan won’t hit Pearl harbor again and 50,000 troops are useless in the face of 2,000,000 Chinese troops in the neighborhood, and we have to bring home our 28,000 approximately troops from Columbia and allow them to handle their very own security, their economy is sufficiently strong to handle it. Our concentrate on defense needs to be a lot more narrow and much more focused on the ones that had the ability to harm us and we need to bank the savings and strengthen those areas which will enable is to better compete economically.
- We have to finally develop and deploy a sane national energy program which makes us as independent as possible, considering the fact that the hungrier economies of India and China will start to contend with us for raw energy sources. The less we invest in energy, as with defense, the better and stronger our economy is going to be against the onslaught from the growing economic powers on the planet.
- We have to start getting our national debt and government spending problem in check now. The more capital and investment dollars that may be funneled into American businesses, the greater off we are able to contend with China and India and also the rest of the world. If all of our available capital will the government, where it’s used on wasteful, inefficient government programs or used to pay the interest our national debt, the stiffer and competitive American businesses is going to be and less economic health our citizens will love.
Main point here, what is needed is a long term strategic arrange for coping with the brand new world order in the regions of national defense and economic strength. Will we believe that the American political class is prepared for such a comprehensive analytical and strategic task? Consider what our politicians happen to be focusing on over the past couple of years:
- A Congresswoman and her staff done legislation that will regulate the sound amount of television commercials.
- A Congressman and the staff worked on legislation that will ban the airing of ED commercials on television.
- A Congressman and the staff done legislation that would provide a tax break for pet owners who might have to give up their pets during these hard economic times.
- The whole U.S. Congress and also the entire Federal financial regulatory network was completely blind sided by the biggest economic malaise since the Great Depression, not realizing that which was coming until it hit them hard.
- Politicians in both houses of Congress worked on a bill to regulate how Division One nfl and college football teams decide a national championship.
- The present New Mexico governor is working on whether or not to pardon Billy The little one, who died over a century ago.
- A Georgia Congressman, at a Congressional hearing, worried in public on if the island of Guam could tip over in the ocean.
- At least two sitting Congress people are prone to shortly face ethics charges and potential trials in the home Of Representatives for numerous financial and ethics offenses.
- Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House, has publicly stated the insane concept that unemployment is the best method to create jobs.
As you can tell, we’ve not elected the most forward thinking, strategic brains in the country. They are so entwined within the daily political infighting and just absolutely trivial matters that point is slipping away while other countries are quickly growing their economies to compete with us, our companies and our citizens.
If long term, strategic thinkers were running this country, they would not be focusing on the above trivial matters but rather could be focused on the next:
Step 1 – start lowering the size of the us government by 10% a year for 5 years to get our national debt and spending under control and also to leave more capital in the private marketplace for investment against other economies.
Step two – try to finally make us more energy independent and to bring other nations right into a worldwide, trackable procedure that reduces carbon emissions equally, not allowing any economy to achieve an economic edge at the expense of others and the environment.
Step 3 – create a ground up method of overhaul, improve, and revolutionize American public education processes to prepare our kids for competition within the new economic world order.
Step four – bring home most, if not all, in our foreign deployed forces to begin the downsizing in our military budget in order to get our national debt in check and to provide capital to grow our private sector of the U.S. economy.
Step five – end the Cuban embargo immediately. After fifty years, most sane people would conclude it’s not worked and ending the embargo would open a brand new market for American businesses just ninety miles from your shores.
Step six – the most important step, institute term limit for those politicians. Given that none of those needed strategic steps have happened to make us able to better compete within the new economic reality which the majority of the sitting politicians have been sitting in the same seats for many years while nothing happened, we cannot think that out of the blue they’ll do the right thing. We need to continually refresh those serving in Congress and also the government with new people who are more fully conscious of what’s going on in the world and therefore are not associated with old ways of thinking and spending.
We can succeed, we simply need some visionary thinker and leaders to make it happen. India has its own problems, most of its population is still dirt poor, possibly providing social unrest problems unless they somehow can bring more people into their economic growth. China population will age quickly, as a result of their one child per family policy, putting stress on their economy within the coming years. All is not lost. In fact, if executed right, a long term strategic plan, as proposed above, might make america even stronger since new markets would open up in these growth economies. I guess the political class can get for this strategic plan when the fix that pesky nfl and college football playoff system.
